Political Consultant / Founder of LSI
The year of politics is often a hot topic for those who explore voter behavior in relation to economic policy. That's the term for the period of the year before the election day comes. It is the day of judgment, "Judgment Day," the day that determines who is finally elected to power.
In the political year, it is normal if there are differences in perceptions between large entrepreneurs, economists and the majority of ordinary people.
Why is the price of premium fuel rising, then in a matter of minutes canceled again? Is this good or bad? Economic policies in political years can explain it.
There is a fixed phenomenon. In democracies whose governments are seeking reelection in the political year, the government tends to choose certain economic policies. That is a more populist policy, which emphasizes more on the welfare of the people (welfare program).
In the political year, more subsidies have been found, more incentive programs are promoting employment. This is a program that is liked by most people who will come to polling stations on election day.
In the political year, it is also normal if the government avoids reducing subsidies and increasing prices.
In the United States, for example, it is well known for the term "welfare as we knew it." Rational economists and smart politicians are as aware of how the welfare program has weighed on the United States economy.
But they also know how many voters have benefited from the program. Seniors benefit from extra health insurance. Job seekers benefit from a variety of training programs and incentives. Those in the poverty line are happy with the food subsidy program.
In the political year, politicians avoid touching or reducing funds that have flowed into the welfare program. This is done consciously even though they only know from a rational economic perspective, their economic policy choices are sometimes "little bit too much."
After the election, politicians generally do a kind of "penance." What they have to do from the point of view of the economy, they will do in the initial period after being re-elected.
For generally large entrepreneurs, political years are not the year they like. The political situation is uncertain. Who wins who loses can change the direction of business and investment. Generally they wait and see. Not infrequently as a result, business growth slows down.
Especially in countries where the transparency of campaign funds is still dark. Often the big businessmen act as the main donors, like it or not.
Not infrequently because they want to maintain the relationship with the politicians who are fighting, the big businessmen have to get extra funds because they are involved in financing the two fighting camps.
As for the pure economists, especially those who are free market leaders, the political year is considered a dark year. Politicians are more motivated by political support than creating a long-term healthy economy.
Differences in interests, perceptions between many stake holders, make the political year always sexy as a study.
Wednesday, October 10, 2018 yesterday, this news took control of the media. The government raised fuel prices. But in a matter of minutes, the price increase of premium fuel was postponed.
This was written in one of the news: If realized, the premium selling price in the Java-Madura-Bali region (Jamali) rose to Rp 7,000 per liter from the previous Rp 6,450 per liter.
Meanwhile, the Premium selling price outside Jamali rose to Rp 6,900 per liter from the previous Rp 6,400 per liter. "The increase began at night (Wednesday / 10/10) at the latest at 18:00 West Indonesia Time," said Jonan.
Intermittent an hour later, President Joko Widodo even asked for an increase in the price of Premium fuel oil (BBM) to be postponed.
"I have reported the president, that PT Pertamina (Persero) was not ready for the fuel price increase today. So the President gave directions to delay the increase in fuel prices.
(Quoted in full from news sources).
Simultaneously social media is full of comments. The Situation Room owned by LSI Denny JA records the data. That October 10 2018, until 3:00 p.m. there have been around 33 thousand conversations in around 11 thousand accounts.
Negative response in the conversation was above 50 percent for two issues: first, did not like the price of fuel rose. Second is the critique of decision-making management: announcing a price increase then within minutes the price of premium fuel prices is canceled.
Wrong or is it true that Jokowi canceled the increase in the price of premium fuel? What happens if the increase in Premium fuel prices is not canceled?